Ian's Bits & Bobs: The Blog

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National Gardening Survey: A Roadmap to Opportunity

For three years now I have been privileged  to be asked to analyze and comment on the huge amount of data contained in the annual “National Gardening Survey” (available for sale from the National Gardening Association).  Now that the report is published I can share a few “ah-ha” data points to get you thinking (though this barely scratches the surface of the 260 page document!)

In the good news category:

• Household participation (now 85 million households) in gardening is up 2% over 2011;

• Participation in all but one category increased (“Pet & Bird” stayed flat);

• Food Gardening increased for the 6th straight year and is now a lot bigger than “Flower Gardening” in spending power;

• The biggest rise in spending by demographic group was in 18-34 year old males (this might even qualify as GREAT news!)

But here’s the (still) bad news:

Average annual spending per Household is down $4 to a miserly $347 (less than they spend on pizza in a year.)

Overall, the three year trend towards decorating, small-project fixing and food gardening continues with little sign yet of capital-intensive full scale DIY landscaping. So while homeowners are increasingly more willing to get out and garden than they were 3-4 years ago, they are still not spending like we all want them to.  Gardening has an image of hard work, time consuming and risky-at-best to many consumers, although they seem to want to give it a cautious “go”.

“Woe is us! Consumers just don’t get it, they’d rather blow their money on clothing and reality TV, what’s wrong with them?”

Is it the Weather? Not on a national scale: there’s always weather somewhere.

The Economy? Yes, a little (…but remember that pizza number!)

Is it Time and Lifestyle? Yes – a lot:  and there’s the rub.

In the battle for consumer’s time/attention/money, the lawn & garden industry is competing against some of the best marketers on the planet — from movies on demand to electronics — most of whom have invested in making a compelling “Value Proposition” to the consumer to buy their stuff even in the midst of tighter financial times. In the meantime, too many L&G decision makers are still telling themselves, “oh, we’ll be fine when housing comes back and the economy picks up”.

(Will we? Or will we have already lost our customers’ attention to other pastimes?)

In reality L&G has so many emotional benefits to offer our customers: from increasing a home’s value to healthier food or outdoor time as a family. We know it — but we have simply not made a compelling case. Decision makers in all stages of the L&G chain simply MUST put more effort into getting this message across to consumers.

If you’re in the business of selling lawn & garden products to the American consumer, the insights in the National Garden Survey can be invaluable in helping you focus on areas of growth and opportunity (like those 18-34 year old males!) If you don’t have time right this moment to read the 250++ page report, here’s one of the critical core messages to get you started this season:

It’s time to build a compelling value proposition to communicate to your customers:

  • Figure out the cost per week of DIY lawn care vs. services who will ‘do it for you’
  • Tell them the cost-benefit of what a spiffy front yard does to home values … in order to sell them a “5 seasons of containers” program, tree installation, or DIY landscape design service.
  • Price-compare the pricey packets of fresh herbs or lettuces in the grocery store vs. a plant that can be harvested all season.
  • Hook their emotions about the taste of their first home-grown tomato, or the joy of seeing a child entranced by a humming bird.
  • Clearly demonstrate that your products can solve their problems:  a soft and safe lawn for kids to play on or a plant that won’t get eaten by deer (as shown in the clever signage in the header captured at Sickles Market in NJ).

It’s important to remember that customers don’t already know everything that we do about the ways that gardening can improve their life, but they do seem increasingly ready to listen:   It’s time for us to clearly communicate that value … and then GO MAKE THE SALE!

 

May 28, 2013 8 Comments
welcomeBackRoundRock

Spring Fling 2013: Maybe Things are Starting to Change?

Oh I know this industry is full of perennial (ha ha) optimists but I just begin to wonder… are things starting to improve? (Though to be fair, if I lived in the part of the USA where the weather was back to a normal March seeing my sales numbers plummet compared to last year’s perfect March, maybe I wouldn’t even be writing this.)

But in California where the prior four springs have been down, flat, flat and down, there are some signs, trends and tea leaves that suggest things might be picking up ever so slightly. And the early spring here in the West is showing indicators the rest of the country might want to watch closely.

First, a business read: the wonderful warm, dry weather for the last few weeks brought April numbers in March for most L&G retailers with sales increases for the comparative stores during the comparative period of +25% to +50%. Some are posting their biggest March ever, even bigger than the last big cash-fest in 2007. (OK so we had 5 Saturdays and perfect weather in March but there’s more to it: Weather drives customer count, attitude drives customer spend – and that’s where we might be seeing some good news, finally.)

The Nitty Gritty Data

Looking at POS data and shopping carts suggests that there has been an increase in the bigger sized items where there was a choice; bigger pottery, statuary, fountains, 5 gal shrubs, 2 gal perennials and so on. Although trees are still stalled, there has been a welcome uptick in shrub sales this year, especially flowering ones that can be used as decorative color or basic landscaping. It’s nothing like 2002 – 2007, but it is a start. We even hear of the basic shrub shortages that the growers were predicting 3 years ago.  Classes or seminars on DIY landscaping, sprucing up the greenery or “curb appeal” that were empty just 2-3 years ago are oversubscribed everywhere, while the landscaper’s phones are starting to ring again. Meanwhile the home-grown food theme is still a traffic driver, as is decorating and self-indulgence.

A smart retailer I know from an earlier-Springing part of the state pointed out that this new-found optimism is very recent – since December actually. He said even the Christmas customer was not this enthusiastic about spending money. In fact, several retailers told me they were caught napping by the big demand increase for plants, pottery, seeds and bag goods. Fall season consumer behavior did not predict such a quick turn-around in attitude. So what’s going on?

It’s the economy

The stock market is on a logic-defying climb to all time new highs, which matters a lot in the California economy where taxes and government budgets depend heavily on capital gains and unemployment is still falling. Since February the news media have begun to talk positively about the housing market, hedge-fund managers are snapping up investment properties creating a demand. That drives up prices, turn rates and homeowners’ interest in spiffing up hundreds of thousands of properties that have been ignored for 4 years.

All this, I think, has resulted in a slight loosening of the purse strings … even though some areas are still struggling and the city of Stockton down the road just went bust. The warm weather drove April traffic in March but the customers’ self-confidence pushed up the average sale in the garden center by anything from $3 to over $6 – a huge jump in a recession.

Can it be sustained?  Is it predictive?

Our first April week lived up to its showery reputation so we will see if this has legs in another few weeks. We optimists are always looking for light at the end of the tunnel. No one is ordering a new Ferrari, but for now the message from warmer climate L&G operators to their cooler climate brothers is:

“Make sure you have big volume ready to go and backup when that sells out. If your weather is even just “normal” this spring, business is going to break BIG for you!”

Enjoy!

 (photo credit: taken at Round Rock Gardens, TX)

Apr 5, 2013 8 Comments
CroppedWallofDeath

Connecting the Consumers’ Gardening Dots

I have been analyzing and commenting on the National Gardening Survey for the last two years and in 2012 I also dug deep into their tri-annual “What Gardeners Think” (WGT) study too. Whereas the annual National Gardening Survey asks consumers WHAT they do and spend in the garden, WGT seeks out the “WHY”. In this excellent survey we can see consumers’ attitudes, likes and dislikes about the activity and the industry that supplies it.

Since this survey came out, several questions and their answers have stuck in my mind as I travel around to visit garden retailers, so I thought I would write a short blog on several of these topics over the next few weeks. It might be worth you walking your stores with these consumer likes and dislikes at your “Top of Mind.”

A question that continues to resonate with me simply asks consumers for their biggest garden challenges, here are the top few answers in priority:

  • 1. Weeds
  • 2. Soil conditions
  • 3. Insects
  • 4 Too little water or rainfall
  • 5. Animal pests

The National Gardening Association told me that the top three challenges above have not changed since the survey began. So if the consumer still feels the same challenges, yet garden spending continues to decline, does that mean the L&G industry has not “made the sale” to America? I think it does.

Despite numerous pretty and strong emotional “end-result” ads on TV (e.g for Scotts lawn food), we see pallets of weed killer and lawn food, mountains of soil amendments and gallons of insecticide sold purely on price at retail. Pile it high and watch it fly –  to those who know what to do, how to do it and what price to expect.

To the other millions of poor souls who are intimidated by or ignorant of our products – good luck! (It’s like me plucking up the courage to go into an electronics store for a new cell phone).

There is rarely a word in garden retail about the emotional outcome, such as the status or pride of a perfect lawn, the joy of pretty flowers in great soil or the taste of a worm-free tomato.  After a hundred years of selling lawn food why has no one come up with a retail sales line like “The Perfect Lawn for only “x” cents a square foot per month”?

Why are insect and other controls stacked together on the retail “Wall of Death” instead of being bundled into projects for the weekend or solutions that talk directly to the consumers’ fears or challenges?  Got kids and pets – try all these remedies over here. Stressed for time but want fresh veggies? – invest in this bundle and all you have to do is pick, wash and eat!

The American consumer has shown in this recession that they will continue to spend selectively on items or experiences that have connected with their emotions (purses, jewelry, cruises) by saving money on items or tasks that show little obvious emotional value. So they search for savings on A to self-indulge on B.

On which side of the perceived-value fence do you want to be?

Feb 20, 2013 7 Comments
canned

Fall is for … Preserving?

I am delighted to report that there has been a welcome upturn in the conventional garden business. In other words consumers are buying flowers, veggies and lawn food again – hooray for that. There was a moment in July when it looked like the American householder had forgotten that their yard, garden or patio traditionally involved buying, replacing or maintaining some type of plant! Most retailers I know had “horrible” Summer numbers, not just in sales figures but, more worryingly, in transactions or register rings (some people call it “Customer Count”). This was not just a local thing in one area with bad weather, it seemed national in scope with comments like “No one showed up” or “Business dropped off the cliff from mid June”.  So to hear that September was up substantially in sales figures, on an admittedly poor 2011,  pretty much across the country in all retail channels is nothing but good news.

What would be even better news would be knowing what is driving it.

To some extent there is no choice for many homeowners.  After 4 years when spending on the garden and patio was pushed down the priority list in many households, they can see that their biggest asset, their house, is starting to look tired and less attractive to a buyer. So at least that will drive people to a store to buy flowers, a few containers and some lawn food, maybe even some pruners to attack those tryphid-like shrubs. Consumers realize that the least they have to do is to protect and preserve what they already had or owned.                                                                   

Is the home-grown, fresh veggies boom driving some traffic?  

I think so, especially in areas of the country where (if you know how) you can get a late crop of all sorts of fresh greens, winter squash or root veggies and a great start on next spring before Jack Frost arrives.  Also, now that many feel competent about growing a juicy tomato, the intrigue of preserving some of that summer bounty might be catching on in younger generations who didn’t learn it from their parents like I did. When I was a kid in England I was cheap labo(u)r for everything from painfully picking gooseberries to cleaning countless jam jars. From June to October the house always seemed to smell of jam or chutney!

Riding the Trend Wave

Some retailers I am glad to say have encouraged this food-preservation trend with tasting events, classes and supplies, others have not. One garden center owner complained that he couldn’t make money on canning supplies but his store just had a shelf or two of jars and lids sitting there for those consumers who knew what to look for (and probably knew their prices as they bought them somewhere every year). There was no promotion, tastings, eye-catching merchandising, cute signage, themes, events, classes, experts on-hand or items bundled into E-Z success-kits like “Make your own Pesto sauce” or “Preserve your luscious tomato flavor all through the winter” and so on.

It takes some imagination and a bit of work, but if we have managed to win the consumers’  trust to grow their own, we can surely be the credible “How-to” center that helps them keep those wax beans, onions or hot peppers on-hand until next summer. Why not use their own tomatoes for those winter pasta or pizza evenings instead of buying a can?

The fact is that consumers have spent on what made them feel good all through the worst recession in recent times. One of those feel-good themes is eating out. (Have you tried to get in to a decent restaurant on a Friday night lately?) Meanwhile the press coverage of better food for kids and the number of cooking programs on TV continue consumer awareness of eating local and better. What could be more local than their own backyard or better than their own basil?

Here comes a softball…

Retailers should be constantly watching the market looking for new opportunities, doors opening. The door labeled “Food Gardening” just offered yet another chance to re-connect with the consumers who are jazzed by their tomato success but are mystified by tales of preservation, canning or even worse “Putting Up.” It is on-trend, not executed well by the supermarkets or boxes, and a natural extension of the core of gardening. In the constant game of looking for one-more-visit-per-household-per-year, the Lawn and Garden industry just got a nice soft delivery thrown its way.

photo credit: Lisa Baldwin (from our harvest!)

Oct 12, 2012 11 Comments
defoliation

Defoliation!

As some of you may know I have been analyzing and commenting on the National Gardening Survey on behalf of the National Gardening Association for the last two years and it was a helluva time to start; just when American consumers seem to be walking away from what used to be their favorite outdoor pastime (yes, but that was 1997!). A quick glance at some of the key metrics or results from the 2011 and 2012 survey can be a pretty depressing read.

The Bad News

One number that got really got my attention was the spending per household per year on what the NGS calls “Landscaping”. In 2008 it was the biggest garden spending category, eclipsing “Lawn Care” which is the usual #1. “Landscaping” is the NGS term for the buying of trees and shrubs and all it takes to successfully plant them (DIY, not by a landscaper) so it includes purchases of the tools, mulch, stakes, fertilizer, irrigation and so on as well as the actual woody plants. Only 4 years ago this activity accounted for $11.7 billion or 32.5% of all DIY garden spending; by 2011 that number has dropped to $6.2 billion (a drop of 46% in just four years and 21% in just 12 months from 2010).

Wilting Tree & Shrub Numbers

The NGS is a consumer survey carried out by Harris Interactive with a level of accuracy (margin of error +/- 3 points) equal to political and other well respected surveys we take for granted. Even so some industry observers and operators have questioned the validity of the data so it was interesting to hear three clients in completely different parts of the country tell me of their woody plant experience. They had posted declines in Tree and Shrub sales (not including the associated hard goods sales which were not tracked separately for each woody plant sale in the POS) of 46%, 45% and 41% in the same time period – WOW.

High-Impact Woodies? 

In fact they (and other clients) added that in reality, there is little demand for what they call foundation plants and the only purchases of basics such as azalea or spirea are when they are in flower and consumers use them as seasonal decoration – like an annual. Retailers often add that consumers are spending “big” money on high impact woodies such as Hydrangeas or Knock Out Roses purely as a showy decoration for a weekend party or summer color, not caring much if it lasts through the winter.

Oh how things have changed! (Remember how those hobby gardeners would quiz you endlessly about guarantees?! )

The glimmer of hope

This huge drop is not just due to a stalled housing market or flat economy. And it won’t just bounce back when the economy and the housing market recovers. There just is no capital intensive DIY gardening going on right now, in rich or poor neighborhoods. It’s all about maintaining and decorating – just one more sign of a changing market and a changing consumer’s view of their garden. Remember, the glass is half full: if there are consumers willing to spend a few hundred dollars on woody plants they see as disposable, that is one attitude shift we can surely leverage!

Photo credit: Paul Anderson

Aug 31, 2012 8 Comments

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